On Polymarket, the probability that Tesla and SpaceX will announce a merger by the end of September has dropped to 10%, with the figure falling 30% over the past 24 hours.

According to PPP prediction market monitoring, data from the “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?” prediction event on Polymarket shows that the probability of Tesla and SpaceX officially announcing a merger by September 30, 2026, has dropped to 10%, a 30% decline over the past 24 hours;The probability of a merger being announced within the calendar year, by December 31, 2026, has dropped to 25%, a 24-hour decline of 18%.
Previously, it was reported that SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7.
The Svmuu Seer channel continuously monitors prediction markets to spot changes before they are priced in.