According to Svmuu Seer’s monitoring, the probability of “Mbappé winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” on predict.fun has risen to 48%, surpassing Messi, with a weekly increase of 22%; the probability of Messi winning the Golden Boot has dropped to 34%, falling to second place; while Haaland has moved into third place with a 13% probability, overtaking Kane.
As the World Cup knockout stage nears its conclusion, the race for the Golden Boot has reached a critical turning point: Messi and Mbappé are tied for the lead on the scoring chart with 7 goals each, but Mbappé holds the edge in the rankings under the World Cup Golden Boot rules due to his higher number of assists, so whether Messi can score in Argentina’s Round of 16 match against Egypt—which kicks off at 0:00 Beijing Time on July 8—will be particularly crucial.
Svmuu Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before they are priced in.