Svmuu News: Steven Ehrlich, Head of Research at Sharplink, posted on X that Ethereum (ETH) has gotten off to a strong start in July 2026, rising approximately 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests that investors may want to pay attention to ETH’s performance in July.Over the past 10 years, ETH has posted gains in four out of seven Julys, with an average gain of 43% during those four months. Since 2020, July has been ETH’s strongest month, with an average gain of about 27%, outperforming all other months.
The key advantage of ETH’s July performance lies not simply in volatility, but in the asymmetry between gains and losses: when ETH rises in July, the average gain is about 43%; in years when it falls, the average loss is only about 5% (2020–2025).Historically, ETH’s strong performance in July has often been accompanied by catalysts specific to the “Ethereum”:
July 2020: A 54% gain; “DeFi Summer” kicked off, Compound launched the COMP token, and a yield farming craze ensued.Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi grew from approximately $1 billion to $4 billion within a few weeks, and monthly trading volume on DEXs increased by 174%, with ETH benefiting as DeFi infrastructure.
July 2022: 58% increase; the timeline for the Ethereum’s “The Merge” upgrade was finalized on July 14, market sentiment rebounded from lows following the LUNA and 3AC crises, and approximately $337 million in short positions were liquidated within three days.
July 2025: 49% increase. The U.S. “GENIUS Act” was signed into law, and monthly inflows into spot ETH ETFs reached a record high of approximately $5.4 billion. At the same time, institutional investors accelerated their allocation to ETH, while a staking rate of approximately 30% and declining exchange balances drove supply tightness.
Historically, months of significant price surges for ETH have typically been driven by a combination of “Ethereum-specific catalysts + supply-demand imbalances.” Looking ahead to July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes the current market environment also presents similar opportunities:
1. Institutional infrastructure is being built. EthLabs (protocol R&D) and Ethereum Institutional were recently launched to drive institutional participation in the on-chain ecosystem, with Sharplink, BitMine, and Joe Lubin among the participants.
2. The Ethereum’s roadmap continues to evolve. On July 4, Vitalik Buterin proposed the “Lean Ethereum” initiative, which aims to simplify the Ethereum architecture, improve speed, and enhance post-quantum security over the next 3 to 4 years—a project whose significance is on par with The Merge.
3. Institutional investors continue to increase their ETH holdings, and digital asset reserve companies remain actively accumulating ETH. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, having purchased an additional 10,000 ETH last week, and has stated that its goal is to increase the number of ETH per share.
Steven Ehrlich noted that Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, and institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation may become key drivers of ETH’s price performance.