According to monitoring data from the PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket has launched a market titled “When will the U.S. and Iran reach a two-week ceasefire?” The current probability for July 18 is provisionally reported at 5%; the probability for July 24 is currently reported at 15%; for July 31, 23%; for August 14, 43%; and for August 31, 54%.
The settlement rule for this event is as follows: If the United States does not take any military action against Iran between the time the market is created and 11:59 p.m. on the specified end date, the market will settle as “Yes.” Otherwise, the market will settle as “No.” The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action. The period continues until 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurred on or before the specified end date, the market will be settled as “Yes.”
A “qualifying military action” refers to an airstrike or ground-to-ground missile strike initiated by the United States and directed specifically against Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-ground missiles, and drones launched from the air. Ground-to-ground missile strikes include one-way attack drones as well as ground-to-ground missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.
Eligible military actions include munitions destroyed or intercepted prior to impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small-arms fire; ground incursions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, artillery, mortars, and rocket launchers (such as multiple launch rocket systems); small-scale ground-to-ground strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air-support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; and any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been carried out.
Join the PPP push notification community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.