According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probability of “Yes” in the prediction event “Will the U.S. government ban open-source AI models in 2026?” on Polymarket is currently reported at 16%.
According to the settlement rules, if the U.S. federal government restricts the U.S. public’s access to or use of a specific open-source AI model through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal policy actions before December 31, 2026, the market outcome will be determined as “Yes.” Otherwise, the market outcome will be ruled “No.” Eligible open-source AI models refer to general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundation models whose model weights and source code are publicly available for download and can run on hardware under the user’s independent control, such as Meta Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Qwen.
The recent release of the open-source Kimi K3 model by Dark Side of the Moon has sparked market concern over whether it will disrupt proprietary AI. Dean W. Ball, Head of Strategy at OpenAI, previously stated on X that the U.S. government might employ soft legal measures to block open-source models from entering the United States, while David Sacks, Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, believes that using regulatory uncertainty to stifle open-source competition is “unacceptable.”
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