Svmuu News: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from Monday morning’s low of 11%; the probability of it closing before September 30 briefly rose to 26%.
Yemen’s Houthi group, Ansar Allah, announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating that the action was based on the “an eye for an eye” principle and aimed to disrupt Saudi crude oil exports. The affected shipping lanes handle more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil.
The outcome of this forecast contract is determined based on maritime trade flow data published by PortWatch, a platform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Mandeb falls to 10 or below on any date between the contract’s creation and expiration, the contract will be settled as “Yes.”