According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the market estimates a 75% probability that WTI crude oil will break through $85 per barrel, a 32% probability that it will break through $90 per barrel, and a 17% probability that it will break through $95 per barrel.
According to market rules, if the high price of any 1-minute candlestick for the WTI front-month contract during July trading reaches or exceeds the corresponding target price, the event is ruled “Yes.” Previously, as U.S.-Iran tensions eased and expectations for the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz grew, concerns over supply disruptions subsided, causing WTI crude oil prices to quickly retreat from their conflict-driven highs to around $70 per barrel. However, with recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran flaring up again and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz re-escalating, the market has once again factored in the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, driving oil prices higher.
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