According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probability that “the next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026” is currently reported at 61% on Polymarket, up 51% over the past 24 hours; Additionally, the probability that it will be released “by July 24” is currently reported at 9%, while the probability that it will be released “by July 25” is currently reported at 5%;
This event will be settled based on the date (Eastern Time) when Anthropic’s next Claude Opus model becomes available to the public. Only models officially named “Opus” by Anthropic are valid, and they must be made available to the public (including public beta or open waitlist). Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not included; Anthropic’s official information will serve as the primary basis for settlement.
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