On Polymarket, the probability that WTI crude oil will break through $95 per barrel in July has risen to 48%, with a 20% increase over the past 24 hours.

According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the probability of WTI crude oil breaking through $95 per barrel has reached 48%, up 20% over the past 24 hours;the probability of it breaking through $100 per barrel has risen to 32%, up 14% over the past 24 hours.
According to market reports, the U.S. has deployed B-1 bombers to strike targets of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; this operation marks a significant escalation and expansion of U.S. military actions. Against the backdrop of the U.S. military’s continued reinforcement of its military deployment in the region, Donald Trump is still considering resuming large-scale combat operations against Iran. Donald Trump has previously stated that should the Islamic Republic of Iran ever open fire on ships in the Strait of Hormuz—whether via missiles, rockets, drones, or any other equipment or weapons—the U.S. will bomb and destroy a bridge or power plant, including facilities located near or within the capital city of Tehran.
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