According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the prediction event on Polymarket titled “When will the U.S. and Iran reach a two-week ceasefire?”, the probability for August 14 is currently reported at 34%, down 1% from the previous week; the probability for August 31 is currently reported at 51%, down 3% from the previous week.
According to settlement rules, if—at any point between the market’s creation and the specified deadline (11:59 p.m. EDT)—there is a continuous 14-day period during which the U.S. does not carry out qualifying military actions against Iran, the market will settle as “Yes.”A qualifying military action refers to an airstrike or ground-to-ground missile attack initiated by the United States that directly targets locations within Iran.
It is reported that the U.S. military has struck Iranian military targets for the 13th consecutive night, and Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by Donald Trump. Neither side has signaled a willingness to de-escalate in the short term.However, according to sources familiar with the matter, Donald Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with the protracted conflict, while his advisors are concerned that the war has driven up prices, dragged down his approval ratings, and resulted in the deaths of more than a dozen U.S. soldiers—all of which continue to erode the Donald Trump administration’s political capital and may further impact the Republican Party’s prospects in the midterm elections.
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