Svmuu News Bitcoin The market’s overall profitability is improving, but on-chain data indicates that this is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, and the market remains at risk of another pullback.
CryptoQuant data shows that the “Supply in Profit” ratio on Bitcoin has risen to 57.5%.This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market whose price is higher than its holding cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% recorded on June 30 and is now approaching 60%.However, the recovery of the “Supply in Profit” ratio still requires further validation. Historical cycles show that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:
First, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit-to-Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain consistently above 1 and not fall below that level for several weeks;
Second, the Bitcoin must remain consistently above 64%.
Analysts note that this cycle has already seen one “false breakout.” Between April 28 and June 1 of this year, the average LTH-SOPR remained above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the proportion of profitable supply rose to 67% at one point, but the market subsequently retreated again.Currently, the 30-day SMA for long-term holders has remained below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, which remains a key risk indicator for assessing the strength of the market’s recovery.
Although the proportion of profitable BTC supply is improving, the market needs further confirmation of changes in long-term holder behavior and profit structure before it can determine whether the current rebound truly marks the start of a new uptrend. (Cointelegraph)