According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the probability of WTI crude oil breaking through $95 per barrel has dropped to 53%, down 16% over the past 24 hours; the probability of WTI crude oil breaking through $100 per barrel has dropped to 27%, a 13% decline over the past 24 hours.
According to market reports, oil prices are still expected to rise significantly this week due to worsening disruptions to energy shipments in the Red Sea and concerns over further escalation of the conflict with Iran; prices are currently on track for a 10% weekly gain. “Due to continued U.S. attacks on Iran, further Houthi involvement in the Red Sea, and the disruption of the CPC pipeline, crude oil supply has once again come under pressure, leading to an inevitable rise in prices,” said analyst Janiv Sha, adding that the current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz appears to be approaching the peak levels seen in March.
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On Polymarket, the probability that WTI crude oil will break through $95 per barrel in July has dropped to 53%, down 16% over the past 24 hours.
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