Svmuu News: CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly report stating that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to about 4.7%, approaching the upper end of its five-year range. The high-interest-rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and putting greater pressure on risk assets.Currently, the futures market prices in a roughly 38% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting, but a Reuters survey of 104 economists generally expects rates to remain unchanged.
Regarding the Bitcoin market, Axel Adler noted that after rebounding by about 11% from its June low of approximately $59,000 to near $66,000, BTC has now pulled back to around $64,300.Four potential risks are simultaneously emerging in the market: First, volatility has compressed significantly; implied volatility fell by 31% in July, dropping to the 8th percentile of its historical range, which suggests that more volatile price movements may follow. Second, demand in the U.S. spot market remains weak; the market has traded at a discount for the past two and a half months, with no sustained capital inflows yet.Third, the market lacks buying liquidity, with stablecoins continuing to flow out of exchanges and new capital activity nearing annual lows; fourth, investors are still realizing losses, and even during periods of profit recovery, some positions are being liquidated, putting pressure on prices.
Additionally, Adler noted that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has not continued to make large-scale purchases of Bitcoin recently. Instead, he published a lengthy article recommending 38 books on civilization, currency, energy, and technological development, in an attempt to construct a theoretical framework positioning Bitcoin as the result of long-term financial evolution.Adler believes the market remains in a critical observation phase, and it is necessary to monitor changes in liquidity, the recovery of U.S. demand, and whether investor behavior is improving.