Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter (often referred to as the “New Fed Correspondent”), wrote that tonight’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is one of the hardest to predict in recent years. Market attention is focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision, with key points of interest including: whether the Fed will raise interest rates or hold rates steady; the strategic logic behind Warsh’s move; and how he will explain his decision to the market, regardless of the outcome. Currently, the futures market indicates a roughly one-in-three probability of a rate hike in July. Timiraos analyzes that if the Fed holds rates steady, attention should be paid to whether there are any dissenting votes; if it unexpectedly raises rates, it would undermine the credibility of officials who previously guided market expectations and could trigger political fallout.