Ahead of today's Federal Reserve rate decision, Kalshi traders assign a 77% probability to the Fed holding rates steady and a 23% chance of a surprise 25 basis point hike. However, Citadel Securities anticipates Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will raise rates to bolster the central bank's inflation-fighting credibility and signal the end of its forward guidance policy. With markets divided, the Fed's decision and Warsh's subsequent remarks are expected to shape market sentiment for the remainder of 2026.