The US Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates, but market expectations for a September rate hike have increased. Despite the Fed holding rates steady and offering no guidance, Kalshi now prices a 53% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, up from previous levels, versus 46% for no change. This shift occurs even after Chair Kevin Warsh suggested tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Fed's work, which initially led markets to view the meeting as dovish. However, three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike.