Oracle faces credit rating downgrade risk due to massive spending under its AI strategy; S&P has already lowered its rating to BBB-.
Analysis indicates that Oracle Corporation, in support of its artificial intelligence strategy, has undertaken large-scale debt financing and data center leases, resulting in negative free cash flow and raising investor concerns about its financial health. The company's capital expenditures accounted for a significant portion of revenue in the fiscal year ending May 2026, and it signed data center lease agreements totaling approximately $260 billion. S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle's credit rating to BBB- in July, just one notch above junk status. Moody's Ratings also issued a negative outlook on its Baa2 rating and expects its leverage ratio to approach 5x in the short term. Fitch Ratings similarly rated Oracle as BBB. Market analysts warn that Oracle may face "fallen angel" risk, meaning its rating could drop from neutral investment grade to junk status, which has already caused its stock price to halve to $129 since June, and bond yields to surge to the 7% to 8% range. Oracle expects capital expenditures to reach $95 billion in fiscal year 2027 but states its commitment to maintaining an investment-grade credit rating.
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