BofA Report: For the First Time in the ChatGPT Era, "Tech Magnificent Seven" Earnings Reports Collectively Exceeded Implied Volatility, and US Stock Divergence Hit a Near 35-Year High
Bank of America's equity derivatives team reported that since the advent of ChatGPT, six of the "Tech Magnificent Seven" have released their latest earnings reports. For the first time, their actual post-earnings volatility almost entirely exceeded the pre-earnings implied volatility from options, indicating that the options market systematically underestimated the impact of large tech companies' earnings. For example, Microsoft's stock price surged by about 16% after its earnings report, while Tesla plummeted by about 15%. BofA believes that the market is repricing AI leaders by much more than expected, pushing the divergence among individual stocks in the US equity market to its highest level in nearly 35 years. It also warned that macroeconomic uncertainty continues to rise, which will strongly support market volatility.
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