Bloomberg economists expect the US core CPI year-over-year growth to slow to 2% in July, a new low since March 2021, supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged in September.

Bloomberg economists, including Anna Wong, noted in their latest weekly outlook report that market expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve have cooled following the unexpectedly weak July non-farm payrolls report. They anticipate that the July headline CPI, to be released next Wednesday, will show a 2.4% year-over-year increase and zero month-over-month growth; core CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% month-over-month, with its year-over-year growth slowing to 2%, the lowest level since March 2021. Additionally, the team projects that July existing home sales (annualized) will decrease by 2% month-over-month to 4.01 million units. Combining signals from the employment, inflation, and housing markets, the Bloomberg economics team expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its September FOMC meeting, believing that future CPI and PPI data will further support a "wait-and-see" policy stance.