BTIG warns of systemic correction risk for U.S. stocks in August-October, advises investors to reduce risk exposure
BTIG Chief Technical Market Strategist Krinsky noted in his latest report that the US stock market is entering the seasonally dangerous window of August to October in a midterm election year, characterized by historical highs and extremely low volatility. The report emphasized that since 1990, the S&P 500 has experienced at least a 7% pullback during this period every year, with the exception of 2006. Current market sentiment is complacent, with the VIX at its lowest point of the year, indicating insufficient demand for protection. Multiple technical indicators are also flashing warning signs, including the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) deviating excessively from its 200-day moving average and a lack of downside volume signals. On the macro front, long-term government bond yields continue to rise after positive data, diverging from the optimistic pricing in the stock market. BTIG advises investors to actively reduce risk exposure or hedge broad equity positions.
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