Goldman Sachs trading desk warns: High US stock market and loose financial conditions may lower the political cost of geopolitical conflicts, beware of tail risks
Rich Privorotsky, head of the Goldman Sachs Delta-one trading desk, noted in an August 17 report that when the S&P 500 is at historical highs and financial conditions are extremely loose, the market's constraint on policymakers significantly decreases, lowering the political cost of initiating geopolitical conflicts. He warned that the current market might be systematically underestimating geopolitical tail risks and pointed out that the cost of extreme tail-risk hedging tools is at historical lows, offering investors an opportunity to build protection at a low cost. Privorotsky also believes that pressure on long-end interest rates is the market's "only real sticking point," and the Federal Reserve might eventually be forced to resume interest rate hikes to restore credibility. In terms of overall strategy, he suggested maintaining a risk-on stance, holding the S&P 500 and gold, shorting bonds, and allocating to cheap volatility protection, favoring financials, semiconductor capital expenditure, industrials, and cyclical sectors.
Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
Disclaimer: This content reflects only the author’s personal views and does not constitute any investment or financial advice. If you discover any content that violates regulations,Click to Report
24H Trending
-
1
TYV Coin Current Status Analysis: Project Positioning, Technical Features, and Market Performance
-
2
What is EYES Coin? Distinguishing Between Homonymous Tokens and the Current Status of the Eyes Protocol Project
-
3
XAVA Coin: An Analysis of the Current Status, Functions, and Market Performance of the Avalaunch Platform Token
-
4
The Wall Street Journal: LVMH Valuation Now Slightly Below Ralph Lauren, European Luxury Brands May Need to Cut Prices to Win Back Consumers
-
5
MOBY Coin: The Value and Investment Considerations of an AI-Powered Crypto Assistant
-
6
Bank of America Projects Micron's Earnings to Grow 34% Annually Through Fiscal 2030, Driven by AI Memory Demand
-
7
According to Curinos data, the average variable interest rate for U.S. HELOCs fell to 7.16%, a new low for 2026, while the average interest rate for fixed-rate home equity loans was 7.35%, with a difference of 19 basis points between the two.
-
8
Sri Lanka SEC Chairman: Government "Seriously Working" on Listing State Firms via Holding Company on Colombo Bourse
-
9
Switzerland's Ascend Sport Technology is reportedly considering going public through a reverse merger, with a valuation of up to $740 million.
-
10
US stock futures waver ahead of retail earnings; Dow slips 0.1%, Nasdaq rises 0.4%, S&P 500 flat
Markets Today
Recommended Reading






