UBS: Gold's upward logic has shifted from "interest rate trade" to "dollar depreciation trade," with medium-to-long-term upside risks rising but 2026 target price lowered.
UBS noted in its precious metals research report on August 27 that gold has seen a strong rebound of 17% so far in August, with its driving logic fundamentally shifting from the traditional "interest rate trade" to the "dollar depreciation trade" (i.e., the fiscal credit framework). The bank maintains its bullish outlook on gold prices and believes that the upside risks to its medium- to long-term forecasts are increasing. However, UBS lowered its year-end gold price target for 2026 from $5,000/ounce to $4,675/ounce (a 6% reduction), but kept its forecasts for 2027 and beyond unchanged, with an upside scenario target of up to $6,500/ounce. UBS stated that the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is the main near-term downside risk, but any resulting pullback should be viewed as an opportunity to add positions rather than a trend reversal.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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