UnitedHealth (UNH) shares have risen approximately 41% since early March, currently trading at around $400 per share, indicating that the market has priced in the company's recovery. However, its Medicare business profit margins are expected to exceed 3% by the end of 2026, but Medicare Advantage membership will decrease by approximately 1.1 million. Meanwhile, medical cost trends in the commercial business are running higher than management's previous expectation of 11% with no signs of abatement, impacted by increased provider coding intensity and the "No Surprises Act" arbitration process, which is projected to result in at least 100 basis points of total cost drag by 2026. Management anticipates that commercial business margins will not fully recover until after 2027, while the company's overall operating margin has averaged 7.1% over the past three years and is currently at 4.8%. In mid-July, the company raised its 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $19.50-$20.00.