Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, stated that the US 10-year government bond yield faces a critical test at 4.8%, and a sustained breach of this level could cause "serious problems" for other asset classes.

Maley pointed out that rising fiscal deficits, massive debt issuance, and substantial corporate borrowing continue to pressure long-term yields, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to verbally intervene and push down yields have so far been ineffective. HSBC also adopted a more cautious stance on long-dated developed market bonds, raising its forecast for the US 10-year government bond yield to 4.65% by the end of 2026, up from 4.30%, and increasing its forecast for the German 10-year government bond yield to 3%.