Futures markets price in a 99.7% probability that the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy by 25 basis points to 2.5% when it meets on Thursday. The focus is on whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will signal more restrictive policy in the coming months or adopt a more cautious stance, with much depending on the potential for resolution or escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. ING economists anticipate the 25bp move but believe Lagarde will keep her options open and push back against the bond market consensus of three more quarter-point increases by June 2027.