UBS expects Bank of England to hold rates at 3.75% on Sept 17, but strike a more hawkish tone due to Middle East escalation and rising energy prices
UBS forecasts the Monetary Policy Committee will repeat July's 6-3 vote split, with Huw Pill, Megan Greene, and Catherine Mann again pushing for a quarter-point hike. The bank also expects the pace of quantitative tightening to slow to £50 billion between October 2026 and September 2027, down from £70 billion currently. On currency, UBS remains constructive on sterling, targeting €0.8500 by year-end, but flags tactical weakness into the Autumn Budget on October 28.
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