EIA Significantly Raises Oil Price Forecast: Brent Crude Expected to Average $91 in 2026 Due to Greater-than-Expected Middle East Supply Disruptions
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on September 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil spot price to $91 per barrel in 2026, an increase of $4, and to $74 per barrel in 2027, an increase of $5. The EIA also projected that Brent crude oil would average approximately $90 per barrel in the second half of this year, $8 higher than its August forecast. This adjustment is primarily attributed to longer-than-previously-expected disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, with some Middle Eastern oil production capacity anticipated to remain offline for several months due to restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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