Bank of America's economics team noted that the market's muted reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's July 29 press conference led to a "central bank inflation credibility shock." Warsh reiterated the "unwavering" 2% inflation target at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 28, but acknowledged that inflation was running well above it. Prediction markets show a nearly 60% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, an expectation further boosted by the better-than-expected employment report on September 4. Analysts advise investors to focus on gold, mortgage rate trends, and market repricing risks.