Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak projects Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) shares to reach $815 by year-end 2026, implying a 25% gain from current levels and comfortably above Street consensus. Nowak attributes this bullish outlook to AI-driven ad gains, citing a 14% impression surge and an 8% click lift. However, he notes the primary risk is Meta's heavy AI capital expenditure, which has compressed free cash flow from $8.55 billion to $784 million.