IEA forecasts global coal demand to reach a new record of 8.94 billion tons in 2026, driven by soaring natural gas prices due to the Middle East conflict.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest report on Thursday, forecasting that global coal demand will increase by approximately 1.2% in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching a new historical high of 8.94 billion tons. This prediction indicates that previous expectations for coal demand to "peak" have once again been missed, with the peak point further delayed. The IEA attributes this to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments and led to a significant surge in natural gas prices. This, in turn, has enhanced coal's competitiveness in power generation costs. Major economies such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea have significantly increased their reliance on coal-fired power generation, with thermal coal prices briefly rising to $150 per ton in the first half of the year.
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