John Schulman, co-founder of OpenAI and current Chief Scientist at Thinking Machines, predicted in a podcast discussion that AI could surpass top human experts in all cognitive tasks performable on computers within just 3 to 4 years. Concurrently, he, along with Beren Millidge, CTO of Zyphra, and Charlie O'Neill, Head of Model Training at Baseten, agreed that a 10x productivity increase for AI researchers within two years is highly credible. However, the three researchers diverged on the technical bottlenecks and pathways to AI Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI), reflecting deep uncertainties within the field.