JPMorgan Chase Report: US Stock Valuation Ceiling Not Determined by High Interest Rates, Earnings Growth is Key
The bank's September 14 report pointed out that this round of interest rate hikes is still some distance from genuinely suppressing valuations. The key determinant of the valuation ceiling is not the yield itself, but rather earnings growth. The report found an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the S&P 500 valuation multiple, with the threshold for valuations to truly come under pressure being approximately 5% to 6%, depending on earnings growth. Strategists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others also believe that as long as economic growth and corporate earnings remain resilient, market pullbacks triggered by moderate rate hikes are likely to be short-term fluctuations.
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Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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