The article points out that the six-month-long energy shock in the Middle East is leading to market concerns about a resurgence in inflation expectations, narrowing the policy space for central banks to "look through" the energy shock. Market pricing indicates that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, local time, has risen to 89%, with both Goldman Sachs and HSBC expecting a 25 basis point increase. The Bank of Japan is expected to follow suit on Friday, and there is a possibility of rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England within the next eight weeks. The European Central Bank already raised rates last week, marking a significant signal of this renewed global monetary policy tightening.
On Monday, international oil prices rose over 3%, with WTI crude futures climbing back to approximately $103 per barrel. US gasoline prices reached their highest level since May, and diesel prices surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time. Spot gold fell 1.3% to $4292.13 per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising interest rate hike expectations. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that another increase in oil prices would further reinforce inflation concerns.
Wall Street News: Middle East energy shocks are forcing global central banks to re-examine the "transitory inflation" logic, with multiple central banks potentially raising interest rates in sync.
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