Anthropic's economics team recently released version 1.0 of its AI Economic Scenarios Model, designed to quantify the potential impact of AI on employment, growth, and wages. The model explores three scenarios, with the "extreme scenario" predicting that AI will autonomously complete almost all knowledge work by 2030, driving an average annual GDP growth rate of up to 15% and doubling the economy's size every 4.5 years. However, in this scenario, knowledge workers would face wage declines exceeding 10% or even long-term unemployment, and capital's share of economic output would rise significantly. The study found that in most scenarios, unemployment rates and wage fluctuations would remain within historical normal ranges.