Wall Street is holding its breath for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Citi and Goldman Sachs are in rare agreement on their core assessment, expecting an almost certain rate hike, but one that will be a "dovish hike." Citi noted in a research report on September 15 that the Federal Reserve will define this rate hike as a "fine-tuning" and hint that there is no necessity for further rate hikes in the future. Goldman Sachs stated in a research report on September 13 that tonight will be a "no-signal hike," not believing there is a sufficient economic basis for this hike, and attributing inflation exceeding the 2% target to one-off factors. Both institutions expect the median dot plot to show only one additional rate hike remaining in 2026, with rate cuts resuming in 2027. The core PCE forecast is expected to be revised downward from June's data due to methodological revisions, providing data support for a pause in rate hikes.

Although the baseline scenario is dovish, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will be the market's biggest suspense. Citi believes that if Warsh refuses to provide clear forward guidance and only emphasizes "more work to be done," the market may reprice consecutive rate hikes in October and December, triggering sharp fluctuations in asset prices. Goldman Sachs believes Warsh needs to emphasize that the Committee will "carefully assess" incoming data to signal waiting for more information, thereby guiding the market away from overconfidence in an October hike. Goldman Sachs expects Federal Reserve Governor Waller to cast a dissenting vote, as the annualized rate of core PCE inflation over the past three months has fallen to approximately 2.5%, below Waller's previously set 2.8% "hold steady" threshold.