JPMorgan Chase analysts note that while the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, Chairman Kevin Warsh's rhetoric regarding this action will be the key factor determining the S&P 500's trajectory. The bank predicts that if Warsh signals a need for significant further rate hikes to control inflation, the S&P 500 could fall by 1% to 2%; if rates are unexpectedly held steady, the index could drop by 1.25% to 1.75%. Conversely, if rates are raised with an indication that this merely unwinds 2025's accommodative policies, the S&P 500 could rise by 0.5% to 1%. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections at 2:00 PM ET, with Warsh holding a press conference at 2:30 PM ET.