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Citibank Analysis: The Bank of Japan's dovish dissent and the Federal Reserve's rate hikes will accelerate its rate-hiking process, bringing forward the terminal rate achievement to July 2027.
Citibank Japan economist Sosuke Nakamura released a report stating that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% at its September meeting as expected, but two dovish dissenting votes will paradoxically prompt the BOJ to accelerate its pace towards the terminal rate. The report suggests that to prevent a strengthening of dovish forces after hawkish board members retire, the BOJ needs to complete its rate hike cycle by July 2027. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve's unexpected rate hike this week also compels the BOJ to quicken its pace to alleviate pressure from the depreciating Japanese Yen. Citi has significantly brought forward its forecast for the terminal rate achievement from the previously expected December 2027 to July 2027, maintaining its terminal rate forecast of 2.00%, and anticipates rate hikes in December 2026, March 2027, and July 2027.
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Source：华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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