Goldman Sachs Analysis: U.S. Inflation Overestimated Due to Temporary Tariffs and AI Statistical Bias
In its global economic analysis report published on September 22, Goldman Sachs noted that while US core inflation appears higher than most economies, after excluding two temporary factors unique to the US—tariff-driven increases and AI-related statistical biases—the underlying inflationary pressure in the US is actually weaker than in other major developed economies. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that tariffs are currently boosting US core PCE goods inflation by approximately 2.4 percentage points year-over-year, expected to recede in the second half of next year. AI-driven memory price increases are overstated due to PCE statistical methodology issues, contributing about 1 percentage point to core goods inflation, and are expected to gradually dissipate by 2027. The report suggests that the stickiness of services inflation is more pronounced in non-US economies, while US housing inflation has largely normalized.
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