Global bond markets experienced their "darkest September," with U.S. Treasury yields surging to their highest levels since 2007, yet equity markets resisted the downturn.
The global bond market suffered a severe blow in September, recording its worst monthly performance in years. The 10-year US Treasury yield alone rose by over 45 basis points in the month, reaching near its highest level since June 2007; 10-year government bond yields in Germany and France touched 17-year and 18-year highs this week, respectively. Contributing factors include deteriorating government finances in major economies, an oversupply of bonds, and inflationary pressures from rising energy costs due to the US-Israel war against Iran. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams explicitly opposed premature monetary policy tightening, causing the 2-year US Treasury yield to pull back slightly, though its cumulative monthly gain still exceeded 50 basis points. In equity markets, strong earnings growth, global economic resilience, and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence supported broad positive quarterly returns or limited declines for stock indices in Europe, the US, and Asia, a stark contrast to the bond market. Additionally, the US dollar recorded a monthly gain of approximately 2% in September, while the Euro fell to a 16-month low.
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