According to Wallstreetcn analysis, after seven months of the US-Iran conflict, the crude oil market's sensitivity to Donald Trump's statements has significantly decreased. Traders' attention is shifting from White House statements to supply indicators such as physical cargo flows.

The analysis points out that the impact of each round of Donald Trump's statements on oil prices has continuously diminished. For example, on October 1, when Donald Trump warned that Iran would "cease to exist" if it did not sign a ceasefire agreement, oil prices barely moved. In contrast, a similar threat on April 1 caused Brent crude to surge over 7% in a single day.

Several crude oil traders interviewed by Bloomberg stated that they are reducing their position sizes and focusing their efforts on quantifiable physical supply signals, such as shipping data. Currently, open interest in Brent crude oil futures has fallen to its lowest level since March 2025, and the intraday price fluctuation range has also narrowed significantly compared to the early stages of the war. JPMorgan Chase analysts admit that it is difficult to build an effective model for the war's outcome.