Barclays and Morgan Stanley predict that the US September headline CPI will accelerate due to higher energy prices, rising to around 3.7% year-on-year. However, the month-on-month increase in core CPI is expected to slightly narrow to 0.24%, down from 0.29% in August. Both institutions believe that despite inflation risks remaining skewed to the upside, Federal Reserve officials are likely to keep interest rates unchanged in October and postpone a 25 basis point rate hike until December. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI data on October 14.