According to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of AI model company Anthropic going bankrupt by the end of 2028 is only 17%, despite its IPO draft showing a net loss of over $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026 and committed spending of up to $750 billion on computing infrastructure.
According to Wall Street Insights citing The Wall Street Journal, approximately $72 billion of Anthropic's $80.7 billion net loss was due to non-cash accounting adjustments, with an actual operating loss of about $8.7 billion. The company's revenue reached $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, and third-quarter revenue grew 45% quarter-over-quarter to $16.8 billion. However, the slowdown in revenue growth has prompted some institutional investors to lower its valuation reference range from $2 trillion to approximately $1.5 trillion. Anthropic's committed spending on computing infrastructure has exceeded $600 billion, and if additional agreements materialize, the total will reach $750 billion. This includes approximately $450 billion in cloud computing contract obligations over the next seven to ten years, with the vast majority of agreements stipulating "payment regardless of actual usage."
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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