Expectations for a decline in oil prices next year are rapidly cooling in the global crude market, with traders now betting on prolonged high prices. Since early September, crude futures for January 2027 delivery have surged 17% to $97 per barrel, reaching a new high since the outbreak of the Iran War.

Citing The Wall Street Journal, Wallstreetcn.com reported that despite Persian Gulf crude exports recovering to above pre-war levels, ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, shipping security concerns, and transportation bottlenecks continue to constrain supply recovery and add extra costs. Bob Elliot, CIO of Unlimited Funds, stated on Wednesday that the market narrative is shifting from "transitory" to a "new normal." Michael Hsueh, an energy analyst at Deutsche Bank, believes that if the war continues into 2027, oil prices could head towards $130 per barrel.

Furthermore, oil inventory buffers have been significantly depleted since the war began. If high oil prices persist into next year, the energy shock could evolve into more persistent inflationary pressure, posing greater challenges to global economic growth and central bank interest rate decisions.