California's Proposition 40, which proposes a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net assets exceeding $1 billion, will be put to a vote on November 3. The latest polls show 45% support and 42% opposition, making the outcome difficult to predict. Supporters estimate it could generate approximately $100 billion in tax revenue, but critics like Governor Newsom worry it could lead to an exodus of wealthy individuals, eroding the long-term tax base. Prediction markets indicate a less than 30% probability of its passage.