Goldman Sachs estimates that a 15% productivity boost from AI could temporarily displace around 9% of workers during the transition. Historical research indicates that every 1% productivity gain from technology typically raises unemployment by 0.3–0.4 percentage points, with effects usually fading within two years. Occupations heavily disrupted by technology have historically lost 25% of jobs within five years. Goldman warns that AI-related layoffs could accelerate during economic downturns, amplifying labor-market weakness.