As elections in the US and Israel approach, the potential resumption of military action against Iran
As elections in the US and Israel approach, the potential resumption of military action against Iran has once again become a focal point, leading to heightened tensions in the Middle East and increased risks to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. According to Xinhua News Agency, Israel will hold parliamentary elections on October 27, and the US will have its midterm elections on November 3. Against this backdrop, shipping and maritime security risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to rise. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stated on the 23rd that the volume of vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as recorded by the agency, is about 70% lower than pre-conflict levels, and the maritime security threat level in the area remains "critical." Brent crude futures have risen over 80% year-to-date, with US gasoline prices also climbing, and the rising cost of living is posing a challenge to the Republican Party's election prospects. Analysts believe that Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu might view a war with Iran as a way to alleviate their respective domestic political pressures, but military action could also further damage their political futures. The US has dispatched a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf and deployed over 10,000 sailors and Marines. Iran, for its part, has intensified its preparations and hinted that it might damage submarine fiber optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if attacked, while also expressing willingness to give diplomacy another chance.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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