Decrypt reported that experts pointed out that prediction markets severely misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election. Polymarket predicted Lula's chances of winning were only 20% before the election, yet Lula ultimately won. Analysis suggests this was primarily due to Brazil's ban on prediction markets, leading to odds being set by traders lacking electoral knowledge, and retail investors diluting the expertise of professional forecasters. Additionally, insufficient market liquidity, lack of local knowledge, and forecasters overemphasizing Bolsonaro's first-round performance while underestimating second-round turnout and voter shifts were also significant factors contributing to the misjudgment.