Russia's alleged shadow war in Europe has escalated this year, with European officials accusing Moscow of drone incursions into Polish, Lithuanian, and Estonian airspace, and suspected Russian drones being downed over Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states. Ukraine also accused Russia of using aerial and surface drones to sink four cargo ships in October near Bulgaria's territorial waters, in an apparent warning to Ukraine's grain exports. Additionally, Russia and Belarus are accused of attempting to destabilize Baltic states through migrant pressure, while EU intelligence agencies report Russia is seeking to "kill" European defense bosses and target their supply chains. Experts warn that Europe's lack of retaliation encourages Russia, potentially leading to further escalation.