Prediction market Kalshi's Senate market showed on October 28 that its Senate control contract and Democratic seat count contract could yield different outcomes for the same election event due to differing settlement terms. This means that even with hedging contracts, traders might face losses before fees, even if the results align. For example, a four-contract hedge package was already 2 cents over the conditional payout amount at the time of quoting, and the differing settlement rules of the contracts introduced additional risk. Specifically, the control contract might settle early based on media statements, while the seat count contract relies on the Senate composition as of February 1, 2027. This could lead to discrepancies between the time control is determined and the final composition date, due to vacancies, party affiliation changes, or altered election results.