Historically, US presidents' parties almost always lose House seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 26 seats since 1946. In 18 of the 20 midterms held from 1946 to 2022, voters took House seats away from the party in control of the White House, a phenomenon political scientists call the “presidential penalty” or “midterm penalty.” Only Bill Clinton’s Democrats in 1998 and George W Bush’s Republicans in 2002 bucked this trend.